Which seller lists sell in California? 36 counties, counted
By Josh MillerUpdated 4 min readAcross the California counties we could measure, the list that sold best was owners with a foreclosure filed: about 13 of every 100 sold off-market within 12 months, against about 0.6 for a house picked at random. Free and clear owners, the most-mailed list, sold at about 0.8 per 100.
Across 36 California counties with records we could trust, about 0.7 of every 100 single-family homes sold off-market in an arm's-length sale over 12 months, about 47,600 homes, and about 24 of every 100 sales went without an MLS listing. Which of those sellers could you have found on a list first? We counted every list in every California county with enough records to measure.
The count, list by list
| List | Of every 100, sold | Any house, at random | Counties | Owners on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreclosure filed | 13.3 | 0.6 | 13 | 10,644 |
| Listing expired or cancelled | 6.2 | 0.6 | 20 | 32,661 |
| Behind on taxes, 5 or more years | 2.6 | 0.8 | 9 | 24,039 |
| Behind on taxes, 2 to 4 years | 2.2 | 0.7 | 22 | 84,612 |
| Sitting vacant | 1.5 | 0.8 | 12 | 29,785 |
| Lien filed against the property | 1.0 | 0.5 | 18 | 135,507 |
| Owns it free and clear | 0.8 | 0.7 | 36 | 1,685,207 |
| High equity, living elsewhere | 0.6 | 0.7 | 34 | 1,095,112 |
| Judgment against the owner | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | 7,752 |
| Owner 65+, living elsewhere | 0.3 | 0.8 | 23 | 347,526 |
Source: GoForClose count of off-market, arm's-length deeds in county records. A county is counted for a list only where the list was big enough to measure; lists measurable in fewer than 3 California counties are left out. Counties whose records don't mark MLS sales are left out entirely.
What stands out
Foreclosure filings are the California list. About 13 of every 100 owners with a foreclosure filed sold off-market within a year, across 13 counties. Nothing else came close: expired listings sold at about 6.
Liens are noise here. California records a lot of liens, and owners with one sold off-market at about 1 per 100 within a year. And California's off-market pond is the smallest of any big state: about 0.7 of every 100 homes sold off-market in a year, and about 0.4 in Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties. Mail only the filings.
The biggest counties
| County | Listing expired or cancelled | Foreclosure filed | Lien filed against the property | Sitting vacant | Owns it free and clear | Any house |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles County | 7.2 | 10.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Riverside County | 5.5 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Orange County | 4.4 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | |
| San Diego County | 4.4 | 8.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| San Bernardino County | 5.5 | 14.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
Source: GoForClose count of off-market, arm's-length deeds in county records.
How California forecloses
California forecloses mostly outside the courts. The trustee records a notice of default, waits at least 3 months, then records a notice of trustee's sale at least 20 days before the auction. That sets how long a pre-foreclosure owner has, and how long you should keep writing. What the filing is called, state by state. This is general information, not legal advice.
Check your county
The state number hides real differences between counties. Read Los Angeles County. Read Riverside County. Or see when each list sells in any California county.
Questions investors ask
What is the best motivated seller list in California?
Across the California counties we could measure, owners with a foreclosure filed: about 13 of every 100 sold off-market within 12 months, across 13 counties. A house picked at random sold at about 0.6 per 100.
How many homes sell off-market in California?
About 47,600 single-family homes sold off-market in an arm's-length sale over 12 months across 36 California counties we could measure, about 0.7 of every 100 homes and 24 of every 100 sales.
Should I mail free and clear owners in California?
Not first. Free and clear owners sold off-market at about 0.8 per 100 within a year across 36 California counties, about the rate of a random house. Lists that start with a filing sold far better.
Does California foreclose through the courts?
California forecloses mostly outside the courts. The trustee records a notice of default, waits at least 3 months, then records a notice of trustee's sale at least 20 days before the auction.