How many houses sell off-market in your county each year?
By Josh MillerUpdated 4 min readIn the middle county we measured, about 1.4 of every 100 single-family homes sold off-market in an arm's-length sale over 12 months, and about 41 of every 100 sales went without an MLS listing. It ranges widely: from about 0.7 per 100 across California's measured counties to about 1.6 across Georgia's and Tennessee's.
Every wholesaler is fishing in one pond: houses that sell without an agent listing them. How big that pond is in your county decides how much mail it takes to find a seller, and almost nobody checks it before picking a market.
The national count
We counted off-market, arm's-length deeds, sales with no MLS listing between people who aren't family, over 12 months in every county with records we could trust. That's 2,038 counties and about 82 million single-family homes.
- About 1.08 million homes sold off-market in those counties over the 12 months.
- In the middle county, about 1.4 of every 100 homes sold off-market.
- In the middle county, about 41 of every 100 sales went without an MLS listing.
- The spread is wide: one county in ten sold off-market at about 0.1 per 100 or less, and one in ten at about 2.4 per 100 or more.
State by state
| State | Off-market sales per 100 homes | Counties measured |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 1.6 | 125 |
| Tennessee | 1.6 | 84 |
| Arizona | 1.5 | 14 |
| Texas | 1.5 | 161 |
| Indiana | 1.5 | 87 |
| Pennsylvania | 1.5 | 45 |
| New Jersey | 1.4 | 21 |
| North Carolina | 1.4 | 95 |
| Ohio | 1.4 | 83 |
| Florida | 1.2 | 65 |
| Illinois | 1.2 | 82 |
| Michigan | 1.2 | 79 |
| New York | 1.1 | 53 |
| California | 0.7 | 36 |
Source: GoForClose count of off-market, arm's-length deeds in county records. 425 counties left out because their records don't mark MLS sales, which makes every sale look off-market; most were in Iowa, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Nebraska and Washington.
Why it matters for your mail
Your mail reaches owners. Only the ones who sell can become deals. Mail 1,000 owners picked at random in a county where 2 of every 100 homes sell off-market a year, and about 20 of them will sell that way. In a county at 1 per 100, about 10 will. The list you mail moves that number far more, but the county sets the floor.
Check your county before you pick a list
- Off-market sales per 100 homes. Above about 1.4 is above the middle county.
- The share of sales that went off-market. If it's near 100, the county's records probably don't mark MLS sales; treat it as missing.
- Which lists sold there. Expired listings and foreclosure filings sold at 12 to 13 of every 100 nationally, and free and clear at about 1.5. Your county will differ. The national count.
Read any county free: every home, the off-market sales, and which lists actually sold.
Questions investors ask
What percentage of homes sell off-market?
In the middle county we measured, about 41 of every 100 home sales were off-market, with no MLS listing. That includes sales to investors, to neighbors and to tenants, all arm's-length, not family transfers.
How many off-market sales happen in a year?
Across 2,038 counties with clean records, about 1.08 million single-family homes sold off-market in arm's-length sales over 12 months, out of about 82 million homes.
Which states have the most off-market sales?
Of the big states we could measure, Georgia and Tennessee were highest, at about 1.6 off-market sales per 100 homes a year, followed by Arizona and Texas at about 1.5. California was lowest, at about 0.7.
Why do some counties show almost all sales as off-market?
Because their records don't mark which sales went through the MLS, so every sale looks off-market. We left those 425 counties out of these numbers.