Updated October 24, 2026
The investor market, right now.
Harder to sell a deal, easier to find a seller. Know which one you're facing before you spend a dollar on marketing. Every number is sourced.
As of October 2026: the 30-year mortgage rate is 7.32%, foreclosure filings are up 21%, investor home purchases are down 22% from a year ago, and 19 states plus Philadelphia regulate real estate wholesaling.
Back above 7. A year ago it was 6.19%. In 2021 it averaged 2.96%.
2021 to 2026 avg, then Oct 22 · Freddie Mac via FREDFilings in the first half of 2026 vs 2025, led by FHA loans. Still below 2019.
2024, 2025, 2026 pace · ATTOMInvestor purchases in Q2 2026 vs a year ago. Share of all buys fell to 26.7%, a five-quarter low.
Share by quarter, Q1 25 to Q2 26 · BatchDataGross ROI on a flip, Q2 2026. Typical profit $60,526. 2025 was the thinnest year since 2008.
2021 to 2025, then Q2 26 · ATTOMTop metros where sellers outnumber buyers, a record. All 13 most lopsided are in the Sun Belt.
September 2026 · Redfin via MPAListings with a price cut. Median 61 days on market. Inventory up 5.4% in a year.
September 2026 · Realtor.com via RISMediaMortgages under 4%. Down from 65% in 2022. Those loans are what subject-to buys.
Q2 2026 · FHFA via Wolf StreetFirms that own 350+ single-family homes can't buy existing ones anymore. Law since July 11, 2026.
ROAD to Housing Act · Mayer BrownWhat's actually going on.
Rates jumped, distress is rising and the big buyers are leaving. Good for finding sellers, rough for dispo.
- 1Rates went back up.7.32% on Oct 22, up from 6.95% in mid September. Retail buyers stall, and flippers pay less. FRED
- 2Foreclosures are climbing from a low base.Starts up 18% in H1 2026, bank-owned homes up 33%. FHA loans drive most new serious delinquencies. The South is hit hardest. ATTOM · HousingWire
- 3The Sun Belt flipped to a buyer's market.Miami has 159% more sellers than buyers, Tampa 104%. Expect softer ARVs and longer holds there. Redfin via MPA
- 4Institutions can't buy, and they're selling.Firms with 1,000+ homes have been net sellers 10 quarters running. The new federal law stops the 350+ crowd from buying existing homes. Build-to-rent is exempt. BatchData · Goodwin
- 5Everything costs more.Home insurance averages $3,012 a year. A first-class postcard stamp went to 62 cents in July 2025. Flip profit fell 13.6% in 2025. Insurify via SuperMoney · ATTOM
- 6The tools merged.PropStream bought BatchLeads and BatchDialer in July 2025. Opendoor's home purchases are up 149% in a year. Stewart · Real Estate News
Five years in one table.
Sales are down about a third since 2021. Companies are buying a bigger share. Profit per flip is the lowest since 2008.
Home sales a month, 10 big counties
Down about 36% from the 2021 peak. Light bars (Jul to Sep 2026) are still being recorded.
Who's buying, share of sales
Solid: bought by a company or LLC, 15% to 17%, the highest in five years. Dashed: no listing on record (off-market proxy), 38% to 30%.
Counted by GoForClose from PropertyRadar county records, Oct 2021 to Sep 2026: Harris, Maricopa, Los Angeles, Tulsa, Wayne, Cuyahoga, Fulton, Duval, Dallas, Riverside. PropertyRadar has no true "sold off market" flag, so the dashed line counts sales with no listing in its data in the 180 days before. Some of that drop may be better listing data, not fewer off-market deals. Company buyers are read from the current owner, which slightly understates the rise.
| Year | 30-yr rate (avg) | Homes flipped | Typical flip profit | Flip ROI | Foreclosure filings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2.96% | 323,465 | $65,000 | 31% (a later ATTOM report says 35.7%) | not found |
| 2022 | 5.34% | 436,807 | $70,100 | 28.1% | about 325K |
| 2023 | 6.81% | 308,922 | $66,000 | 27.5% | about 358K |
| 2024 | 6.72% | 309,050 | $77,000 | 32.1% | 322,103 |
| 2025 | 6.60% | 297,045 | $65,981 | 25.5% | 367,460 |
| 2026 | 6.50% YTD | 77,991 in Q2 | $60,526 Q2 | 21.5% Q2 | 227,548 H1 |
Sources
- Rates: FRED MORTGAGE30US, annual averages.
- Flips: ATTOM 2021, 2022 to 2023, 2024 to 2025, Q2 2026.
- Foreclosures: ATTOM 2024, 2025, H1 2026. 2022 and 2023 are back-figured from ATTOM's percent changes, so they're rough.
Harder or easier?
Both. Finding motivated sellers got easier. Selling the contract got harder.
Harder
- 1Fewer cash buyers.Investor purchases down 22% in a year. Flippers make less per deal, so they pay less.
- 2Phones work less.One operator's count: about 1 real appointment for every 150 to 200 dials. BiggerPockets
- 319 states now regulate wholesaling.Licenses, disclosures, seller cancel rights. Double closing doesn't get around most of them.
- 4Mail costs more.Postage is up, and margins are thinner on the back end.
Easier
- 1More distress.Foreclosure starts up 18%, bank-owned homes up 33% in H1 2026.
- 2Sellers are stuck.20.8% of listings cut price, 61 days on market. A cash offer looks better than it did in 2022.
- 3Lots of deals never hit the MLS.About 40% of sales are off market, per one data vendor (July 2026).
- 4Fewer giants bidding.The 350+ home landlords are out as buyers.
Nobody counts wholesalers, so "more wholesalers" can't be measured. Off-market share: BatchData (vendor).
How deals get found today.
Mail still makes the most money. Calls and texts got harder, and AI is moving in.
Revenue REsimpli users booked by channel, 2024. Their users only, no sample size. REsimpli (vendor)
- 1Direct mail.REsimpli's founder calls mail his best channel: about $5,500 back for every $1,000 spent, with postcards at 50 to 60 cents. Mastermind recap, Feb 2026
- 2PPC and pay-per-lead.The channel coaches push now. Plan on $5K+ a month for 6+ months. Exclusive leads run $125 to $1,500, most around $150 to $180.
- 3Cold calling.The same founder spent $28K on calling and got back $24K, with a few deals still closing.
- 4Texting and AI.AI now handles first texts and follow-up for many teams. AI voices count as robocalls, so consent rules apply. FCC
- 5Agents, MLS and JV deals.Novations and agent-sourced deals fill the gap as sellers compare cash offers with listing.
No independent survey ranks channels by share. The order is our read of the sources above.
What a deal costs.
Nobody publishes cost per deal by market size. Here's every real number we found.
| Item | Number | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Average assignment fee | About $13,000 national. Experienced operators $15K to $20K. | Survey of 1,000+ wholesalers, via Real Estate Skills |
| Fee by market | Arizona about $5K (lowest). NC and GA about $22K. St. Louis $25K (highest city). | Same survey |
| Google PPC, per closed deal | $2,800 to $9,600 | Redefine Web (agency claim) |
| Exclusive seller lead | $125 to $1,500 each. Most paid $150 to $180. | Published prices from 7 seller-lead vendors, Sept 2026 |
| Direct mail, per piece | 50 cents to $1 all in | Real Estate Skills · REsimpli |
| Marketing as share of revenue | About 21%. His ceiling is about 40%. | One operator, REsimpli |
Big-metro vs mid-size vs small-market cost per deal: not published anywhere we could find. The closest proxy is the fee spread by market above.
What's hot.
Creative finance, because half of all mortgages are under 4% and new money costs 7.3%.
| Play | Heat | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Subject-to / creative finance | Hot | Low-rate loans are the asset: half of all mortgages are under 4% and new money costs 7.3%. The due-on-sale clause is still the risk. |
| AI acquisitions | Hot | AI texting and voice for first contact and follow-up. AI voices count as robocalls under the TCPA, so consent rules apply. |
| Novations | Still going | Used as a workaround where assignments are regulated. Check the MLS and Zillow listing rules before listing one. |
| PPC / Google | Coach favorite | Agencies push it hard. Plan on $5K+ a month for 6+ months. REsimpli |
| Fix and flip | Cooling | Thinnest margins since 2008. |
| Short-term rentals | Flat | Occupancy 57.4%, revenue per room up 2.9%. AirDNA |
Heat is our read of the rate and lock-in data above and the sources linked. TCPA AI rule: FCC, Feb 2024.
Who's big.
Nobody ranks wholesalers publicly. These are the biggest home buyers that publish their volume.
| Operator | Model | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Opendoor | iBuyer | 4,378 homes bought in Q2 2026, up 149% in a year. Real Estate News |
| HomeVestors (We Buy Ugly Houses) | Franchise | 165,000+ homes since 1996. About 10,000 a year (2020). Business Wire |
| New Western | Agent marketplace for investors | Claims a home "every 13 minutes." About 1,100 staff. Self-reported |
| Express Homebuyers | Cash offers, assigns | "5,000+ homes," no time frame. Self-reported |
| Joe Homebuyer | Franchise | About 62 to 64 units, about $504K gross a unit. Franzy (FDD) |
| Offerpad | iBuyer | 268 homes bought in Q2 2026. Real Estate News |
At the $13K average fee, $1M a month in fees is about 77 deals a month. Bolt Deals' biggest clients close about 40 deals a month, around $720K at its $18K average fee (Bolt, vendor).
States that regulate wholesaling.
19 states plus Philadelphia now license, limit or police wholesaling. Eight acted in 2025 and 2026.
| State | Rule | What it means | Passed | In effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | License | Contract must say it's wholesale. Seller can cancel within 30 days. | 2024 | Jan 4, 2025 |
| Philadelphia | City license | $200 a year, $1M insurance, disclosure 3 days before any offer. | Nov 2020 | 2020 |
| Delaware | License | Seller can cancel for 21 days. Disclosures required. | Jun 1, 2026 | Aug 30, 2026 (license Feb 2027) |
| Illinois | License | 2+ deals in any 12 months needs a broker license. | Aug 9, 2019 | Jan 1, 2020 |
| Virginia | License | 2+ contract deals in 12 months counts as brokerage. | 2024 | Jul 1, 2024 |
| Iowa | License | Licensed or broker-represented, plus disclosure before signing. | 2024 | Jul 1, 2024 |
| Oklahoma | License | License to market a contract. Disclosure, 2-day cancel, escrowed deposit. | 2021, 2025 | Nov 1, 2021 and Nov 1, 2025 |
| Oregon | Registration | $300 a year. Disclosure. Either side can cancel within 3 business days. | 2024 | Jul 1, 2025 |
| Connecticut | Registration | $285 with Consumer Protection. Disclosure before signing. | 2025 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| South Carolina | Marketing banned | Can't market the property before you own it. A plain assignment is OK. | May 2024 | May 2024 |
| Nebraska | Marketing = brokerage | Publicly marketing the contract needs a license. | 2022 | 2022 |
| North Dakota | Marketing = brokerage | License to publicly market. Disclosure. | 2023 | 2023 |
| Ohio | Disclosure | Signed disclosure on 1 to 4 units, or the seller can cancel. | Dec 1, 2025 | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Louisiana | Disclosure | 5-day cancel, 1%+ deposit in escrow. | 2026 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Missouri | Disclosure | Disclosure 14 days before contract. Signing not confirmed. | 2026 | Aug 28, 2026 (reported) |
| Maryland | Disclosure | No disclosure means the seller can walk. | 2025 | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Tennessee | Disclosure | Disclose your interest to the seller and the end buyer. | Mar 25, 2025 | 2025 |
| Texas | Disclosure | Disclose your equitable interest or it's unlicensed brokerage. | 2017, 2023 | Sep 2017 |
| Arizona | Disclosure | Disclose to the seller and end buyer before signing. | 2022 | Sep 24, 2022 |
| Wisconsin | Disclosure | Either side can rescind without disclosure. | Mar 2024 | Mar 24, 2024 |
Coming up and just landed.
| What | Status | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Delaware license required | Coming | About Feb 26, 2027 (270 days after signing) |
| FCC texting opt-out order | Coming | Adopted Oct 1, 2026. Live 30 days after it's published. |
| North Carolina HB 797 | Pending | Passed the House 103 to 0, Apr 30, 2025. Stuck in Senate Rules. |
| Michigan HB 5366 | Pending | Introduced Dec 16, 2025. In committee. |
| California AB 1850 (license) | Stalled | Held May 14, 2026 |
| Alabama HB 586 (license) | Stalled | Stalled Apr 8, 2026 |
| Delaware cancel + disclosure | Just landed | About Aug 30, 2026 |
| Missouri disclosure | Just landed | Aug 28, 2026 (reported) |
| Louisiana disclosure | Just landed | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Connecticut registration | Just landed | Jul 1, 2026 |
- 1No wholesaling law found:Georgia, Florida, Minnesota, New York.
- 2Market the contract, not the house.Photos, addresses or bed counts in a public blast can count as brokerage in SC, NE and OK. Your own buyers list is the safest route.
- 3Double closing is safer, not safe.Most laws target assignments without taking title. Illinois may count both legs. Check state by state.
- 4Texting:The FCC adopted a new opt-out order Oct 1, 2026. Honor seven stop words, and one opt-out covers all your marketing. Covington
Are new investors showing up?
The community keeps growing. The buying doesn't.
257 joined on the day we checked. 594 forum posts in 24 hours.
Oct 24, 2026 · biggerpockets.com/statsBiggerPockets' index, where 100 is neutral. Mildly positive.
Late 2025, 600+ members · BiggerPocketsShare of investor purchases made by small investors. They own about 96% of investor homes.
H1 2026 · BatchData / Realtor.comBiggerPockets shows only a live counter, no history, so growth over time can't be read from it.
Questions to ask in 2026.
The ones that decide whether a deal makes money this year.
- 1Can I still text and cold call at scale?Yes, with care. The FCC's one-to-one consent rule was struck down in January 2025. Tighter opt-out rules started April 2025. AI voices need consent. MoFo · ActiveProspect
- 2Who's buying my contracts now?Fewer people. Small local investors, not funds. Find out who in your county bought in the last 90 days before you lock up a deal.
- 3Where's the distress?FHA borrowers in the South. Foreclosures are moving faster too, with the shortest timelines since 2013.
- 4Is my best channel still my best channel?Measure cost per deal by list and channel. The same list can win in one county and lose in the next.
- 5Is iBuying back?Opendoor is buying again, up 149% in a year. Same sellers you mail.
Quick answers.
Is real estate wholesaling legal in 2026?
Yes, in every state, but 19 states plus Philadelphia now license, limit or police it. Most require a written disclosure and give the seller a window to cancel. A few require a license or registration.
Which states require a license to wholesale?
Pennsylvania, Delaware (from about February 2027), Illinois and Virginia (after more than one deal a year), Iowa and Oklahoma require a license. Oregon and Connecticut require registration. Philadelphia requires a city wholesaler license.
What is the average assignment fee?
About $13,000 nationally, from a survey of 1,000+ wholesalers. Experienced operators report $15,000 to $20,000. It ranges from about $5,000 in Arizona to about $25,000 in St. Louis.
Are foreclosures going up in 2026?
Yes. Filings rose 21% in the first half of 2026 versus 2025, and bank-owned homes rose 33% (ATTOM). They are still below 2019 levels.
Are investors buying fewer homes?
Yes. Investor purchases fell 22% in Q2 2026 versus a year earlier, and investors made 26.7% of all purchases, a five-quarter low (BatchData).
How do wholesalers find deals in 2026?
Direct mail still produces the most revenue for REsimpli's users, ahead of cold calling. PPC, texting with AI follow-up, and agent or MLS deals fill out the mix. No independent survey ranks the channels.
How much of revenue should go to marketing?
One operator's published numbers put marketing at about 21% of revenue, with a ceiling of about 40%. Track cost per deal by list and channel, not cost per lead.
Made by GoForClose, done-for-you direct mail for real estate investors since 2019. Vendor numbers are labeled as vendor numbers. Where no source existed, we say so. Updated monthly.