Which sellers say yes to subject-to? What foreclosure filings show in 99 counties
By Josh MillerUpdated 4 min readThe sellers most likely to say yes to subject-to owe close to what the house is worth and are behind on payments, and the public list of them is foreclosure filings: across 99 counties, of every 100 owners with a foreclosure filed, about 13 sold off-market within 12 months, against about 1.2 for a house picked at random. They decide slowly: only about 3 of every 100 sold in the first 3 months, so keep mailing them for a year.
Subject-to only works with one kind of seller: an owner with a mortgage, little equity, and a reason to hand the house and the payment to someone else. You can't pull that list from a list tool with one click. The closest public record to it is the foreclosure filing.
So we counted what happened to owners with a foreclosure filed, in every county where we had enough sales to measure: 99 counties, 49,268 owners, filings from October 2024 through March 2025.
About 13 of every 100 sold off-market within a year
| Time since the filing | Of every 100, sold off-market | Owners who sold |
|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 2.9 | 1,420 |
| 6 months | 6.8 | 3,363 |
| 9 months | 10.2 | 5,014 |
| 12 months | 13.1 | 6,478 |
Source: GoForClose count of off-market, arm's-length deeds in county records. A house picked at random in the same counties sold off-market at about 1.2 per 100 over 12 months. Counties measured: 20 in Florida, 18 in California, 17 in New Jersey, 10 in New York, 8 each in Illinois and Colorado, and 18 more across 6 states.
Two things matter here. The foreclosure list sells: about 13 of every 100 owners sold off-market within a year, far above a random house. And it sells slowly: less than a quarter of those sales happened in the first 3 months.
Most say yes months later
In the 99 counties, the point where foreclosure owners were furthest ahead of a random house came at 3 months in 16 counties, 6 months in 31, 9 months in 25, and 12 months in 27. In most counties, the best window was well after the filing.
That matches what happens on the phone. In week one, the owner is still sure the loan modification will come through. In month five, the modification failed, the sale got postponed once, and taking over the payment sounds a lot better. The investor who's still writing in month five gets that call.
So a subject-to campaign on foreclosure filings is a year-long campaign. One letter in week one, while every other investor in the county is also mailing, is the most expensive letter you'll send. See the selling window in your county.
What the records can't tell you
A deed shows that a house sold and who bought it. It doesn't show whether the buyer took over the loan. So this count tells you which owners sold off-market, which is the pool subject-to deals come from, not how many of those deals were subject-to. Anyone who claims to know their subject-to close rate from public records is guessing.
Who doesn't fit
- Free and clear owners. No loan, nothing to take subject to. They're seller-financing prospects. Which deal fits which seller.
- Owners with lots of equity. They can sell on the MLS and pay off the loan. Subject-to only makes sense to them if they need out faster than a listing allows.
- Owners already listed. Take sold and listed owners out before every letter.
Then write the offer the right way. How to write a subject-to offer to an owner behind on payments.
Questions investors ask
How do I find subject-to sellers?
Start with owners who have a foreclosure filed: the filing is public, and it means the owner is behind on a loan they may want someone to take over. Across 99 counties, about 13 of every 100 sold off-market within a year.
When do foreclosure owners sell?
Slowly. Of every 100 owners with a foreclosure filed, about 3 sold off-market within 3 months, about 7 within 6, about 10 within 9, and about 13 within 12. Most sales came after the first 3 months.
Do county records show which sales were subject-to?
No. A deed shows that a house sold and to whom, not whether the buyer took over the loan. Our count shows which owners sold off-market; how many of those were subject-to, nobody can count from the records.
Are free and clear owners good subject-to leads?
No: with no loan, there's nothing to take subject to. Free and clear owners are seller-financing prospects, and they sold off-market at about 1.5 per 100 within a year across 2,170 counties.