Are expired listings worth mailing?
By Josh MillerUpdated 4 min readYes, if you reach them fast, because the first three months after a listing expires or is cancelled are when most of those owners sell. In Douglas County, NE, 134 of 521 owners whose listing expired or was cancelled sold off-market within 12 months, and 91 of those sales came in the first 3 months.
An expired listing is an owner who already told the world they want to sell. The house sat on the market, the price or the timing didn't work, and the agreement ran out or got cancelled.
Most of those owners still want to move. Some will relist with a new agent. Some would rather take a fair cash offer and be done with showings, and those are the ones a letter can reach, if it gets there in time.
Five counties, one pattern
In every county where we could measure it, all 492 of them, owners whose listing expired or was cancelled sold off-market more often within 12 months than a random house in the same county. How much more changes a lot from place to place.
| County | Sold within 12 months | Sold within 3 months | Owners on the list | Any house, 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas County, NE (Omaha) | 25.7 | 17.5 | 521 | 1.6 |
| Cook County, IL (Chicago) | 19.4 | 12.9 | 7,464 | 1.1 |
| Harris County, TX (Houston) | 15.3 | 8.6 | 14,473 | 1.4 |
| Maricopa County, AZ (Phoenix) | 7.7 | 3.8 | 8,440 | 1.4 |
| Los Angeles County, CA | 7.2 | 3.9 | 8,518 | 0.4 |
Douglas County, NE (Omaha) sits at the top of these five. About 17 of every 100 owners whose listing expired or was cancelled sold off-market within 3 months of the filing, and about 26 within 12 months, against fewer than 2 of every 100 houses picked at random over the same 12 months.
Los Angeles County, CA sits at the bottom: about 7 of every 100 sold off-market within 12 months. Even there the list won easily, because fewer than 1 of every 100 houses picked at random sold off-market over those 12 months.
Douglas is a smaller list, 521 owners, so it can swing more from year to year than Cook or Harris. That's another reason to count your own county instead of borrowing someone else's.
Why the first three months decide it
Compare the 3-month and 12-month columns. In four of these five counties, half or more of the year's off-market sales on this list came in the first 3 months: 964 of 1,448 in Cook County, IL, and 91 of 134 in Douglas County. Maricopa County, AZ was just under half, 324 of 650.
Across 492 counties measured, the first 3 months after the filing were the busiest quarter for off-market sales in 476. After that the list cools fast. A first letter in month five mostly reaches owners who already relisted or decided to stay.
The real question with this list is how fast you can reach it. A list that shows up weeks late, or a mail schedule that only drops once a month, can cost you the best stretch.
How to mail them
Expired and cancelled listings come from the MLS, not the county. If you're not an agent, you get them through an agent with MLS access or from a list service. Either way, ask how many days old a record is when it reaches you. Finding sellers before they list covers why that gap exists.
Mail several letters close together in the first three months, then ease off. When to mail each list lays out that blitz with Cook County's numbers, quarter by quarter.
Re-check the list before every drop. An owner who relisted is working with an agent again, and a letter to someone who already sold is a stamp you never get back.
Keep the letter plain. They just spent months on showings and price cuts. A short note that says you'll buy as is, on their timeline, reads better than a flyer. When they call with doubts, handling homeowner objections has the usual ones.
Do expired listings beat every other list?
Not everywhere. In Harris County, TX, they led every list we measured, with about 15 of every 100 owners selling off-market within 12 months of the filing. In Duval County, FL, foreclosure filings led instead: about 19 of every 100 sold off-market within 12 months, against about 9 of every 100 expired and cancelled listings over the same 12 months.
The full tables for both counties are in which motivated seller lists actually sell. For clients, we put expired listings in the fast lane, mail them while the window is open, and take out anyone who relisted or sold every week. How it works shows the weekly build.
How we counted
We counted every off-market, arm's-length sale recorded in the county after each filing, for filings from October 2024 through March 2025. Expired and cancelled listings are counted as one list. A house picked at random is every single-family house in the county, over 12 months. Probate and divorce are left out: there are too few on record in most counties to measure honestly.
Every number here is counted from the county's own records. The numbers were counted by FirstPulse, the data engine GoForClose runs on.
Questions investors ask
How soon should I mail an expired listing?
As soon as you have it. Across 492 counties measured, the first 3 months after a listing expired or was cancelled were the busiest for off-market sales in 476. In Douglas County, NE, 91 of the 134 off-market sales within 12 months came in the first 3 months.
Do expired listings sell better than a random house?
In every county we could measure, 492 of 492, owners whose listing expired or was cancelled sold off-market more often within 12 months than a random house in the same county. In Los Angeles County, CA, about 7 of every 100 sold off-market within 12 months, against fewer than 1 of every 100 houses picked at random.
Is a cancelled listing different from an expired one?
We count them as one list, so we can't tell you which of the two sells more. Both mean the owner tried to sell through an agent and it didn't happen.
What if the owner already relisted?
Take them off. Re-check the list before every drop and remove anyone who relisted or sold, so you only pay to reach owners who are still deciding.
Where do I get expired listings?
From the MLS, through an agent with MLS access or a list service that carries it. Ask how many days old each record is when it reaches you.